Prediction of clinical outcome in patients with nonvariceal gastrointestinal bleeding using Forrest classification and Rockall score

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Abstract

Background
Predicting outcome of upper gastrointestinal bleeding has significant importance to reduce mortality, duration of hospital stay, and medical cost.
Objective
The aim was to investigate the predictive value of Forrest classification and Rockall score in assessing rebleeding rate and mortality rate in patients with nonvariceal gastrointestinal bleeding (NVUGIB).
Patients and methods
A total of 518 patients with NVUGIB from January 2013 to July 2017 were enrolled in this retrospective study. Logistic regression analysis was used to assess the association between these scores and clinical outcome.
Results
Forrest classification is significantly associated with rebleeding, whereas Rockall score is closely associated with mortality. The risks of rebleeding in patients with Forrest Ia-b [odds ratio (OR): 39.2; 95% confidence interval (CI):19.2–79.8], FIIa (OR: 29.7; 95% CI:13.5–65.4), and FIIb (OR: 6.5; 95% CI: 3.0–14.1) were significantly increasing compared with FIII. The risks of mortality in patients with Rockall score 4–6 (OR: 9.4; 4.1–21.6), 7–11 (OR: 101.5; 50.2–205.3), were significantly increasing compared with the group with Rockall score less than 4.
Conclusion
Forrest classification can be used as a predictor for rebleeding and Rockall score can be used as a predictor for mortality in patients with NVUGIB.

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